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精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了

核心提示

宏图棋牌游戏① 2018NIANFANGDICHANQIYEDEGONGCHENGJICAIEZAI250YIYUANZUOYOU,ZHONGGUOCIZHUANXINGYEGUIMOYISHANGQIYEYINGYESHOURU2993YIYUAN,ANZHAOBILI,DAXINGFANGDICHANDEGONGCHENGZHANLVEJICAIJINZHAN8.4%,BILIBINGBUGAO。

宏图棋牌游戏② DANGQIAN,JINGZHUANGFANGDEQIAODIAOZHONGZHUANGLVJIAOGAO,ZHEIBUFENXIAOFEIXUQIUZHONGXINLIUXIANGLINGSHOUSHICHANG;TOUBUTAOQIDEGONGCHENGJICAIDINGDANZAIZHONGXIAOTAOQIJINXINGTIEPAIDAIGONGSHENGCHAN,JIANJIEERYAN,SHIZHONGXIAOTAOQIZAIWEIDAXINGDICHANGONGSITIGONGDINGDAN。CONGZHEIXIEJIAODUERYAN,“JINGZHUANGFANG”DUIZHONGXIAOTAOQIDEYINGXIANGGENGRUO。

宏图棋牌游戏③ XINGYEJIZHONGDUTISHENG。2016NIAN,WOGUOJIANTAOXINGYEZHUYINGYEWUSHOURUZAI4500YIYUANZUOYOU,SHICHANGZHANYOULVDADAO1.5%YISHANG(JIYEWUSHOURUDADAO67.5YIYUANYISHANG)DEQIYEJINYOU2JIAZUOYOU;2019NIAN,JIANTAOXINGYEZHUYINGYEWUSHOURUZAI2800~3000YIYUANZUOYOU,SHICHANGZHANYOULVDADAO1.5%YISHANG(JIYEWUSHOURUDADAO42YIYUANYISHANG)DEQIYEYUJIHUIYOU5JIAZUOYOU,BINGKAISHICHUXIANSHICHANGZHANYOULVZAI3%ZUOYOU(YEWUSHOURUDADAO84YIYUAN)DEQIYE。

宏图棋牌游戏2019NIANYIJINWEISHENG,YIZUZUCHUMUJINGXINDESHUJUJIREN“HANFENGCIGU”ZHIGAN。JINGLIGUOCHANNENGDEDIANFENGYUXIRIDEFANHUA,ZHEIGECENGJINGWUXIANFENGGUANGDEXINGYEZHENGYINGLAIQIANSUOWEIYOUDIGU——YIDAPITAOCIQIYEHONGRANDAOXIA,ZHONGDUOCONGYEZHEDAIZHEMIMANGYUJUEJUELIKAIZHEIGEDAPINDUONIANDEXINGYE。

发展的困境背后,影射出陶瓷企业销售业绩的腰斩,根据各大陶瓷产区的反馈数据,2019销售业绩同比下滑30%以上的陶企比比皆是,曾经月销千万元、现在仅能月销三四百万元的品牌不乏其例。

宏图棋牌游戏MIANDUI“FENLIANG”YUELAIYUEQINGDECAIWUBAOBIAO,XUDUOPINPAIYINGXIANGLIRUO、ZONGHESHILIXIAODEQIYEJIANGYUANYINGUIJIUYUJINGZHUANGFANGDEJUDACHONGJI。“XIANZAIXIAOLIANGCANDAN,GONGCHENGJICAIDEJIELIURANGJINGXIAOSHANGYUELAIYUENANZUO。”JINGZHUANGFANGDEMENGLIETUIJIN,BUJINRANGZHONGXIAOTAOQISHOUZUWUCUO,YIRANGJINGXIAOSHANGWEIZHIRUHU。

精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了

01

快速推进的“精装房时代”

JINGZHUANGFANGDEFAZHANDUIZHONGXIAOTAOQIDEYINGXIANGJIUJINGYOUDUODA?LIQINGZHEIYIWENTI,HUOXUNENGGOUZAIYIDINGCHENGDUJIEDAZHONGXIAOTAOQI、JINGXIAOSHANGYEJIZHENGTIDAFUXIAHUADEZHENGJIE。

2013NIANYIQIAN,QUANGUOJINGZHUANGFANGZHENGCETUIJINHUANMAN,SUIRANZHENGFUCHUTAILEYIXILIETUIJINZHUZHAIJINGZHUANGXIUDEZHENGCE,DANYOUYUQUEFAJUTIDEDINGCENGSHEJI,TUDI、CAISHUI、JINRONGDENGFANGMIANYEQUESHAOZHENGCEZHICHI,ZHENGCENANYILUODI;DAN2013NIANYIHOU,ZHENGCEKAISHIJUTIHUA、BIAOZHUNHUA、JINGZHUNHUA,JINGZHUANGFANGDEYIZAIQUANGUOFANWEINEIJIASUBUJU。

这一节点之后,陶瓷企业的工程集采部门越来越举足轻重。回顾陶瓷企业工程部门的兴起过程:2010年以前,经销商几乎是陶瓷企业唯一的销售渠道,部分大型陶企虽设立有工程部,但只是用来服务经销商,并非开展实质性业务。但2010年以后,伴随着传统零售渠道竞争的日益激烈,越来越多的陶企开始广开渠道,成立简易的工程部,探索工程业务。

ZAOQIDEGONGCHENGBU,JIUSHIZHAOSHOUJIMINGYUANGONG,ZHUANMENCHUQU“SAOJIESAOLOU”,JIUJINXUNZHAOSHANGPU、XUEXIAO、XIAOXINGLOUPANDENGXIANGMUHEZUO,GONGZIBUGAO、GUANLIBUYAN,CONGYEZHELIAOLIAO,ZHIYESUZHICANCHABUQI。2013NIANYIHOU,JIEZHUGUOJIADAMIANJITUIXINGJINGZHUANGFANGDE“DONGFENG”,HENDUODAXINGTAOQIKAISHIZAIZAOQIGONGCHENGBUDEJICHUSHANGCHENGLIGONGCHENGZHANLVEBU,KAIZHANYUDAXINGFANGDICHANSHANGDEHEZUO。

精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了

宏图棋牌游戏“JINGZHUANGFANGSHIDAI”LAILINHOU,GAIBIANLETAOCIXINGYEDEGONGCHENGYEWUSHENGTAI,BUJINTUIDONGGONGCHENGQUDAOSHICHANGGUIMODECHIXUKUODA,YEWUHEZUOYICONGZUICHUDEXIAOLOUXIANGMU,YANSHENZHIRUJINDEDAGUIMOFANGDICHANXIANGMU,SHICHANGBUDUANKUODADETONGSHI,ZHUNRUMENJIANYUHEZUOBIAOZHUNBUDUANPANSHENG,DUITAOQIZONGHESHILIDEYAOQIUYEYUELAIYUEYANKE。

宏图棋牌游戏SHIZHIJINRI,GONGCHENGSHICHANGYIJINGCHENGWEIYIKUAIJIDADE“DANGAO”,TABUJINHANGAIDAXINGFANGDICHANGONGSIDEJINGZHUANGFANGXIANGMU,HAINANGKUOQUYUXINGFANGDICHANGONGSI、LIANSUOCHAOSHI、YINXING、SHANGYEZHONGXIN、JICHANG、DITIE、LIANSUOZHUANMAIDIAN、XUEXIAO、YIYUAN、JIUDIAN、LIANZUFANGDENGXIANGMUDEJICAI。

宏图棋牌游戏GUOQU,JINGXIAOSHANGSHICIZHUANXIAOSHOUDEJUEDUIQIANGSHIQUDAO,GUOWAIZHULIUDEJIANCAICHAOSHIBEIYINJINZHONGGUOHOU,YIWEINENGHANDONGJINGXIAOSHANGQUDAOFENHAO,YINCIYENEIFACHU“HANSHANRONGYI,HANJINGXIAOSHANGNAN”DEGANTAN,DANGONGCHENGJICAIQUDAOXINGQIHOU,JINGXIAOSHANGQUDAODELAOGUDIWEIBINGFEIBUKEDONGYAO。

2016-2019年精装修商品住宅渗透率(公开资料整理)

精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了

02

2018年我国精装房瓷砖采购额约为135~225亿元

宏图棋牌游戏QIANGSHILAIXIDEJINGZHUANGFANGQIANGDUOLEDUOSHAOCIZHUANLINGSHOUSHICHANG?

公开数据显示,2018年我国商品房销售面积17亿平方米、销售额15万亿元,同时2018年我国商品房精装修率达到27.5%,这也意味着2018年我国精装修商品房面积达到4.7亿平方米,考虑到精装房单价比毛坯房平均高出2000元/㎡左右,2018年我国精装修商品房销售额达到4.5万亿元左右,2019年或达到5万亿元左右。

宏图棋牌游戏JINGZHUANGFANGZAICIZHUANDESHIYONGLIANGSHANG,60%YISHANGDEDIMIANSHIYONGCIZHUAN(QITASHIYONGMUDIBAN),20%DEQIANGMIANYONGCIZHUANPUSHE,GONGGONGQUYU(CHUDIANTI、LOUTI)QIANGDIMIANDALIANGSHIYONGCIZHUAN,BAOSHOUJISUAN2018NIANJINGZHUANGFANGDECIZHUANSHIYONGLIANGZAI5YIPINGFANGMIZUOYOU。

精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了

宏图棋牌游戏2018NIANFEIJINGZHUANGXIUJIAOFUDESHANGPINFANGBILIWEI72.5%,MIANJIWEI12.7YIPINGFANGMI,ZHEIBUFENSUIRANWEIMAOPIJIAOFU,DANGONGGONGQUYUDEQIANGDIMIANDAMIANJISHIYONGCIZHUAN,ANZHAOSHANGPINFANGPINGJUN20%DEGONGTANMIANJIZHESUAN,ZAIJIASHANGQIANGMIANDECIZHUANSHIYONGLIANG,BAOSHOUJISUAN2018NIANFEIJINGZHUANGXIUJIAOFUDESHANGPINFANGCIZHUANYONGLIANGZAI3YIPINGFANGMIZUOYOU。

这也意味着,2018年仅商品房板块,房地产企业工程集采的瓷砖量就达8亿平方米,按照瓷砖销售33元/平方米的平均单价换算,2018年房地产企业的工程集采额达250亿元左右。

宏图棋牌游戏ANZHAOLINGYIZHONGJISUANFANGSHIHUANSUAN,JIEGUODAZHIXIANGTONG。

宏图棋牌游戏FOSHANYIJIADAXINGTAOQIDEGONGCHENGJICAIBUMENFUZERENGAOSU《TAOCIXINXI》JIZHE,ZUIJINJINIANQUANGUOSHANGPINFANGJIAGEBIAOZHANG,CIZHUANJIAGEQUECHENGXIANDUANYASHIXIAJIANG,KAOLVDAOMEIYIJIADICHANGONGSIDEDINGWEI、CHENGBENKONGZHI、LIRUNZHUIQIUDENGCUNZAICHAYI,DANGQIANDICHANGONGSIDEJINGZHUANGFANGCIZHUANCAIGOUE,DAZHIZHANDAOXIAOSHOUZONGEDE0.3%~0.5%,XIANGDANGYU100WANYUAN(2018NIANQUANGUOSHANGPINFANGJUNJIA8823YUAN/PINGFANGMI,MIANJI113PINGFANGMI)DESHANGPINFANG,SHIYONG3000~5000YUANHUOZHIDECIZHUAN(HANGONGGONGQUYU)。

以这一换算标准为计,2018年我国精装修商品房瓷砖采购额为135亿元~225亿元,如果再算上毛坯房公共区域的瓷砖采购额,取中间值,亦能印证2018年大型房地产企业瓷砖工程采购额大致在250亿元左右。

2018年,中国瓷砖行业规模以上企业营业收入2993亿元,按照上述数据,大型房地产的工程战略集采仅占8.4%,比例并不高,宏图棋牌游戏预计2019年这一比例会提升到10%左右。

另一方面,考虑到当前精装房的重装率较高(不少消费者对精装修效果不满意,敲掉瓷砖重新装修,消费需求重新流向零售市场),精装房对传统零售市场的冲击或许更加有限。

此外,行业公开的秘密是,许多头部陶企的工程集采订单在中小陶企进行贴牌代工生产,间接而言,是中小陶企在为大型地产公司提供订单,从这一角度而言,“精装房”对中小陶企的影响更弱。

精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了

03

市场需求骤降,才是陶企销量锐减的主因

宏图棋牌游戏DANCONGSHUJUFANGMIANLAIKAN,DANGQIANJINGZHUANGFANGDUICIZHUANLINGSHOUSHICHANGDECHONGJIZHENGTIBINGBUSUANDA,JINGXIAOSHANGYIJIUSHICIZHUANXIAOSHOUDEJUEDUIZHUDAOQUDAO,DANTOUBUPINPAIJIESHIGONGCHENGQUDAODEKUAISUFAZHAN,QUESHIBURONGHUSHIDESHISHI。

ZAIMAOPIFANG“YIZHIDUXIU”DESHIDAI,YOUYUCIZHUANYONGLIANGJIAOSHAO,KAIFASHANGBINGMEIYOUSHEZHICIZHUANGONGYINGSHANGJINRUMENJIAN,DAOZHIYUDAXINGKAIFASHANGHEZUODECIZHUANQIYESHULIANGPINGJUNCHAOGUO10JIA,ERJINGZHUANGFANGSHIDAI,“JICAIMOSHI”DEDAOLAIRANGCIZHUANGONGYINGSHANGSHULIANGJIJUJIANSHAO,MENJIANYUELAIYUEGAO,ZAIDICHANJICAIKEHUMINGLUZHONG,JUYOUPINPAIYOUSHIDEQIYEDEDAOGAOSUFAZHAN。

2012~2018年中国瓷砖行业营业收入、产量、平均单价分析

精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了

ZHU:BENBIAOGECIZHUANDANJIAWEILILUNSHANGSHUJU,JINGONGCANKAO。KAOLVDAOCIZHUANCHANLIANGBUNENGWANQUANZHUANHUAWEIXIAOLIANG,YINCIDANGQIANCIZHUANDESHIJIDANJIAHUIGAOCHUBENBIAOGESUOTONGJIDEDANJIASHUJU。

宏图棋牌游戏DANZAIJINLIANGNIANJIJUXIAHUADEXINGYEDASHIXIA,XINGYECHANXIAODAFUDUJIANSHAO,JIBIANSHIHENDUODETOUBUTAOQIYEWEINENGXINGMIAN。

事实上,从近两年头部陶企的营收情况来看,业绩实现快速增长的仅是少数企业,相当部分具有较强品牌优势的头部陶企亦出现了业绩停滞或者下滑。这说明,近两年中小陶企营收的急剧下滑,与行业大环境的下滑联系更为紧密。

宏图棋牌游戏SHUJUXIANSHI,2018NIANWULUNSHICHUKOUHAISHINEIXIAO,TAOCIXINGYEJUNCHUXIANLEYANZHONGDELIANGJIAQIDIE,XINGYEZHUYINGYEWUSHOURUTONGBIXIADIE28.1%,JIJUXIAHUADECHANYEXINGSHIYIJISHICHANGXUQIUDEJIJUWEISUO,HUOXUCAISHIXINGYEJULIEXIPAIDEZHUYAOYUANYIN,ER“JINGZHUANGFANG”SHIDAIDEDAOLAI,JIASULEZHONGXIAOTAOQIDETAOTAI。

终端零售渠道的艰难,从近两年的行业数据中可见一斑。过去行业主营业务收入达4500亿元的高峰时期,工程及出口渠道占比较小,陶瓷行业至少有3500亿元以上的业务收入是面向经销商。

精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了

到了2018年,行业主营业务收入降至2993亿元,市场需求严重下滑的同时,工程、整装等渠道占比快速上升,或许只有不到2000亿元的业务收入是面向经销商完成,经销商的生存空间被压缩近半。

2019年,市场形势更为严峻。“煤改气”、环保治理、秋冬季错峰生产、退城入园等政策纷至沓来,行业开窑率普遍较低,甚至北方产区的很多陶企一年下来开窑时间不足6个月,但饶是如此,陶企依然面临销售的量价齐跌(从2016~2019年,三年间瓷砖单价下跌30%)宏图棋牌游戏,以及严重的库存积压。

SHICHANGDEXIPAIYIJIXINGYEDETAOTAISAIRENGZAIJIXU。MUQIANLAIKAN,ZHONGGUORENJUNCIZHUANXIAOFEILIANGRENGDA6PINGFANGMI/RENNIAN,YUANGAOYUFADAGUOJIADE1.5~2PINGFANGMI/RENNIAN,CHANNENGDEGAODUGUOSHENG、SHICHANGXUQIUDEZHOUJIANG,SHITAOQIPUBIANGANJUESHICHANGJIANNANDEZHUYAOYUANYIN。

04

集中度提升:龙头企业市场占有率已接近3%

SUIRANCONGSHUJUFENXI,DANGQIANJINGZHUANGFANGDEDUIZHONGXIAOTAOQI、LINGSHOUSHICHANGDECHONGJIBINGBUSUANTAIDA,DANJINGZHUANGFANGWEILAIDEFAZHANQIANLIBURONGXIAOQU。DANGQIAN,WOGUOJINGZHUANGFANGSHENTOULVJINWEI30%ZUOYOU,ERRIBEN、OUMEIDENGFADAGUOJIADOUZAI80%YISHANG,GENJUXIANGGUANJIGOUJIXINGYERENSHIYUCE:“WEILAISHINIAN,WOGUOJINGZHUANGFANGSHENTOULVJIANGDADAO80%。”

假设未来十年,中国瓷砖产量急剧下滑,降至众多行业人士预测的50亿平方米,出口量5亿平方米,我国精装房比例达到80%,再加上学校、医院、酒店、商业中心、连锁专卖店等项目的工程采购,此消彼长之下,工程渠道将大有可能成为与传统经销商并驾齐驱的主导销售渠道。

宏图棋牌游戏BUFENJIAJUXIAOFEIXUQIUYOULINGSHOUDUANXIANGGONGCHENGDUANZHUANYI,YICHENGWEIDASHISUOQU,“DEGONGCHENGZHE,DEWEILAI”BEIYUELAIYUEDUODETAOQISUORENTONG。

2019NIAN,DABUFENTAOQIXIAOSHOUYEJIXIAHUA,DANRENGYOUSHAOBUFENQIYEZHUAZHUGONGCHENGQUDAODEFAZHANQIJI,SHIXIANGAOSUZENGZHANG。XIANGGUANSHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIANQIANSANJIDU,MENGNALISHAYINGSHOUTONGBIZENGZHANG23.37%,OUSHENNUOYINGSHOUTONGBIZENGZHANG36.48%,YUEXINJIANKANG(SIMIKE)YINGSHOUTONGBIZENGZHANG21.4%,ZENGZHANGYUANYINHENDABUFENLAIZIGONGCHENGQUDAODEFALI。

YUEXINJIANKANG(SIMIKE)FABUGONGGAOCHENG,2019NIAN,YUEXINJIANKANGJIAQIANGKUOZHANGONGCHENGXIAOSHOUQUDAO,QUDEJIAOMINGXIANDECHENGXIAO,SHICIZHUANXIAOSHOUSHOURUTONGBIZENGZHANGFUDUJIAODA;MENGNALISHADICHANKEHUYOUYUANLAIDE30DUOJIAZENGJIADAO60DUOJIA……GONGCHENGQUDAOCHENGWEIXUDUOTOUBUQIYENISHIZENGZHANGDEXINDONGNENG。

精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了

JINGZHUANGFANGSHENTOULVDECHIXUKUAISUTISHENG,SHIDETOUBUQIYEHUOYIMINGXIAN。JUGONGKAIZILIAOXIANSHI,MUQIANWOGUOMEINIANXINZENG80WANTAOJINGZHUANGFANG,ZENGLIANGDAILAIDENIANCIZHUANXUQIUZAI7000WANPINGFANGMIZUOYOU,ERZHEIBUFENSHICHANGLAOLAOBEI10JIAZUOYOUDETOUBUQIYEZHANJU,BINGJIASUXINGYEJIZHONGDUDETISHENG。

事实上,从近两年头部企业的发展势头来看,建陶行业的品牌集中度正在提升。2014~2016年间,我国建陶行业主营业务收入在4500亿元左右,市场占有率达到1.5%以上(即业务收入达到67.5亿元以上)的企业仅有2家左右。

而2018、2019年,建陶行业主营业务收入在2800~3000亿元左右,市场占有率达到1.5%以上(即业务收入达到42亿元以上)的企业预计会有5家左右,并开始出现市场占有率超过2%(业务收入达到56亿元)、3%(业务收入达到84亿元)的企业——这充分说明,行业集中度的提升。

宏图棋牌游戏WEILAI,SUIZHEJINGZHUANGFANGZHENGCEDEZHUBULUODIHETUIJIN,ZHONGXIAOTAOQIDESHENGCUNKONGJIANHAIJIANGJINYIBUBEIYASUO,TONGSHICHUANTONGJINGXIAOSHANGDAILIMOSHIJIANGSHOUDAOBUXIAODECHONGJI,DUIYUDAXINGTAOQIDEZIJINLIAN、QIYESHILI、CHUHUOSUDU、CHENGBENKONGZHIDENGYITICHUGENGGAOYAOQIU。

(WENZHUANZAIZITAOCIXINXI,WENZHANGGUANDIANJINDAIBIAOZUOZHEGUANDIAN,BUDAIBIAOBENGONGZHONGHAOLICHANG)

精装房对中小陶企的冲击有多大?最全数据分析来了


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